From January to February 2022, China's total social logistics was 51.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% at comparable prices. The growth rate of total social logistics continued the recovery trend since the fourth quarter of last year, and was significantly higher than the level in 2019 before the epidemic, indicating that the overall logistics demand was still on the rebound path, and the logistics operation started smoothly.
From the structural point of view, from the internal point of view, the effect of the policy of expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption has continued to show, and the demand for Industry and consumer logistics has maintained rapid growth; Externally, the global economic cycle has not yet recovered to its normal level, and the demand for import logistics continues to fall.
The demand for industrial logistics grew rapidly and the new momentum continued to increase
After the festival, enterprises returned to work and production in an orderly manner, and the demand for industrial logistics maintained a rapid growth. From January to February, the total logistics volume of industrial products increased by 7.5% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points faster than the average growth rate in the two years from 2020 to 2021.
From the perspective of structure, the new momentum continues to exert its power, and its supporting effect on industrial logistics demand is enhanced. The high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry continued their rapid growth trend. From January to February, the total logistics volume of high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 14.4% and 9.6% respectively year-on-year, 2.3 and 3.4 percentage points faster than that of December last year.
In terms of industry, the computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and instrument manufacturing industry all achieved double-digit growth, and the growth rate was accelerated month on month. In addition, the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 7.2% year-on-year, 4.4 percentage points faster than that in December last year, especially the output of new energy vehicles increased by 150.5% year-on-year, and continued to grow at a high speed on the basis of the doubling growth of the previous year.
People's livelihood consumption logistics demand recovery speeds up the sustained development of new business forms
From January to February, driven by online promotion factors such as "online New Year's festival", the logistics demand for consumer goods manufacturing at the production end accelerated recovery, and the logistics demand for e-commerce online shopping at the sales end remained hot. From the production side, the recovery of the consumer goods manufacturing industry was accelerated. From January to February, the logistics demand of the consumer goods manufacturing industry increased by 9.7% year-on-year, 5.2 percentage points faster than the average growth rate of the two years from 2020 to 2021.
From the point of view of the sales side, the new business type still plays a significant role in helping. From January to February, the total logistics volume of goods of units and residents increased by 10.5% year-on-year; Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.3% year-on-year. The e-commerce logistics index shows that the year-on-year growth of e-commerce logistics business volume in the first two months exceeded 25%, and the growth of rural business volume is close to 25%, maintaining a rapid growth trend.
Import price increment drops and logistics demand continues to fall
Since the fourth quarter of last year, international commodity prices have continued to rise, which has had a certain impact on China's relevant imports. The data shows that from January to February, the import logistics volume decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, falling for five consecutive months. However, it should also be noted that the decline in import logistics volume has narrowed since this year. With the gradual recovery of China's economy and supply chain in the future, the import scale will also expand.
In terms of import structure, the import volume of crude oil, coal, lignite and steel decreased due to the sharp rise in prices of bulk commodities, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, 14.0% and 7.9% respectively; The import demand of meat in agricultural products maintained a downward trend, with a year-on-year decrease of 33%.
Expansion of logistics market scale and acceleration of industry integration
The scale of the logistics market continued to expand and the industry integration accelerated. Since 2021, the market scale of the logistics industry has continued to expand, and the growth rate of the total revenue of the logistics industry has also maintained a relatively high level. From January to February, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, faster than the 2019 level before the epidemic.
With the development and growth of new driving forces, the logistics demand structure is constantly changing, which puts forward higher requirements for logistics services. In particular, since the epidemic, the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry has been significantly accelerated, and the logistics market has entered a period of accelerated integration. The proportion of the top 50 logistics enterprises in China's revenue has risen to the highest level in recent years, and the overall industrial concentration has increased steadily. The leading enterprises in sub sectors such as express delivery have further promoted the industrial concentration through mergers and acquisitions. According to the data of the State Post Office, the brand concentration index CR8 of express and parcel services from January to February was 85.3, which was significantly higher than that of the whole year and the same period in 2021.
The transportation business grew rapidly, and the logistics enterprises operated more efficiently. In terms of physical quantity, the freight volume of the whole society in February increased by 15.5% year-on-year, of which the road freight volume increased by 21.1%. In terms of enterprise business, the total business volume index rose instead of falling in February, rising 0.1 percentage points to 51.2% compared with the previous month. Since February, driven by the resumption of work and production and other factors, the physical quantity and business volume of the logistics industry have maintained a good growth trend. At the same time, logistics has maintained a relatively efficient operation efficiency. In February, the capital turnover rate index and equipment utilization rate index in the logistics industry prosperity index both rose by 0.1 percentage point month on month, and remained above 50% for six consecutive months, reflecting that enterprises actively improve the efficiency of capital use and the timeliness of logistics equipment operation, which played a certain role in regulating the tight balance between personnel supply and demand in the first two months of the year.
In general, the macroeconomic recovery continued in the first two months of this year, and the growth rate of logistics demand scale maintained a good level. From the perspective of market demand and expectation, the new order index and business activity expectation index in the logistics industry prosperity index were 50.2% and 59.7% respectively, both higher than last month. Among them, the business activity expectation index has been running in the high prosperity range for two consecutive months, indicating that the logistics enterprises have a good expectation for the development of the industry.
However, it should also be noted that since March, unstable and uncertain factors have increased, making it more difficult for the logistics industry to ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
From the external environment, the impact of the epidemic in some areas is still continuing, and the development level of various industries and regions is uneven. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts are continuing, which may lead to poor cross-border logistics channels in Europe, tight transport capacity, rising freight rates, supply chain impact, and increased pressure on the supply and price stability of key commodities, which need to be tracked and analyzed.
From the perspective of market vitality, the operating costs of logistics enterprises tend to rise, the pressure of rising raw material and labor costs has increased, and the foundation for the overall recovery of the industry needs to be further consolidated:
First, the linkage between logistics service price and cost is weak. Although the cost of raw materials such as oil prices continued to rise, the price of logistics services did not rise significantly. In February, the service price index in the logistics industry prosperity index fell by 0.2 percentage points instead of rising, and the highway logistics and coastal bulk cargo freight rates fell month on month, showing that under the background of the current homogeneous competition in freight services, the industry's bargaining power is low, and there is a certain lag in the linkage between costs and logistics service prices.
Second, the profitability of the industry is under further pressure. According to the key survey data, from January to February, the logistics business cost of key logistics enterprises increased by 17.3% year-on-year, and the cost per 100 yuan of operating income was 90.7 yuan, an increase of 1% year-on-year, which was significantly higher than the average level of Industrial Enterprises above designated size. Among them, the fuel cost and labor cost increased by more than double digits respectively under the influence of factors such as rising commodity prices and structural shortage of labor. From the perspective of profitability, the loss of key logistics enterprises from January to February was nearly 30%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating that the operating pressure of logistics enterprises has increased, resulting in further compression of profit space. The overall revenue profit margin was about 3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the damage of small and medium-sized logistics enterprises is more obvious. The income profit margin of small and micro logistics enterprises is less than 3%, lower than that of the same period of last year, and there is a large gap with large and medium-sized enterprises.